Some pessimism for your macroeconomic optimism
Matthew Martin 12/23/2014 09:15:00 AM
That sounds like good news, but I'm not yet impressed. That's because the economy actually shrank -2.1% in first quarter. Over the previous 4 quarters, then, the economy is giving very mixed signals, and has only actually grown a little under 2.7 percent. Quarterly declines in seasonally-adjusted real GDP that don't coincide with recessions are exceptionally rare. There have been only two in the entire post-world-war record. The previous one was first quarter 2011--it's clear that the post Great Recession economy is quite different than the economy that preceded it.
At anyrate, here's seasonally adjusted real GDP with today's revisions, over the past 3 years:I'm not trying to argue that the economy isn't getting better, just that recent GDP performance is not particularly promising considering that it actually shrank, quite a lot, just two quarters ago!